Voters are receptive to President Donald Trump’s proposed tax overhaul, with nearly half of those who have heard about the plan supporting it, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.
But as Congress begins to draft tax legislation, the poll also shows that some elements of the outline released by the Trump administration last week are more popular than others. And voters are skeptical they will benefit from any changes to the tax code.
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Overall, the 48 percent of voters familiar with the plan who support it is greater than the 37 percent who oppose it. Fifteen percent have no opinion about the proposal.
For now, the partisan split favors the GOP. More than three-quarters of Republicans, 78 percent, approve of the tax plan, while a smaller share of Democratic voters, 65 percent, disapprove. Independent voters are split: 38 percent approve, and 38 percent disapprove.
But opponents of the plan are more enthusiastic: 26 percent strongly oppose it, compared with 20 percent who strongly approve of the proposal.
The most popular elements of the initial proposal are doubling the standing deduction from $12,000 to $24,000 (62 percent of voters say that should be in the eventual tax bill), reducing the maximum small-business tax rate from 39.6 percent to 25 percent (61 percent), creating a $500 tax credit for all dependents (61 percent) and increasing the child tax credit (60 percent).
Among the least popular elements of the proposal: reducing the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent (39 percent of voters say that should be in the bill) and no longer taxing overseas profits of U.S. companies.
Voters have low expectations that any tax legislation will provide them significant relief, the poll shows. Thirty-two percent of voters say people like them will pay less if the plan becomes law — the same percentage of voters who say people like them will pay more. Nineteen percent say people like them will pay about the same amount, and the remaining 17 percent are undecided.
More voters expect a tax overhaul to benefit high-income Americans: 41 percent think the rich will pay less in taxes, compared with 28 percent who think they will pay more. But this question reveals partisan splits.
“The general framework of the Republican tax overhaul is quite popular, though there is some confusion about its impact,” said Kyle Dropp, the co-founder and chief research officer of Morning Consult. “For example, just 27 percent of Trump voters expect high-income earners will pay less in taxes under the new proposal, compared to 57 percent of Clinton voters.”
Fewer voters think middle-income Americans will benefit: 35 percent think they will pay less, and 32 percent think they will pay more.
More voters do expect businesses to receive a tax cut: 48 percent think small businesses will pay less under the Trump plan, and 49 percent think large businesses and corporations will pay less.
Overall, a 44 percent plurality of voters expect the proposed changes to the tax code to have a positive impact on the U.S. economy, the poll shows. Only 24 percent think they will have a negative impact, 13 percent expect them to have little impact either way, and 19 percent have no opinion.
The poll also shows a slight uptick in Trump’s approval rating: 45 percent approve of the president’s job performance, up from 43 percent last week. The percentage of voters who disapprove ticked down from 54 percent last week to 52 percent in the new survey.
The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 1, surveying 1,992 voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.
More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines:| Crosstabs: